In this issue:

• The Bearish Case For Crypto (by Flower)

• This Week in Neo Tokyo: The Blood On the Streets Is Bait For Bears (by DadFuture)

The bearishness is invading my soul again. There is real pain, turmoil and despair in the markets recently. Some people told me I should never have switched to neutral/slightly bullish in the first place, much less “around the top,” but to be fair we had entire months of prices going up after I stopped being a disgusting bear. 

Lately, however, we could see momentum shifting. Lots of top signals again. All around us.  Even Zcash started running for some reason.

Additionally, we have seen a lot of these sort of posts flying around, people being scared about some random dude on 4chan predicting the end of the world:

There is always gonna be some lucky dude that posts these things and nails it down. And for every prediction like this there are 283 similar ones that failed, you just don't see them.

But still. We are faced with this eerie and tough question. 

Could the cycle actually be over this time? 

There might be some Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt to entertain, indeed. 

For most of us still here none of this is an issue anyway since none of us hold any of the top altcoins or BTC anyway, what we held was NFTs and “crypto gaming” assets the entire cycle and watched our portfolios slowly diminish while everyone’s net worth skyrocketed. Good for emotional resilience and coping with pain, bad for our kids' future. 

The cycle never even happened for us in the first place.

Still, there are those of us that never believed that this time it's (much?) different and that we are heading into a supercycle and that crypto prices are just going to go up forever from here. Even with all the “institutional buying pressure.”

And, as a result, those of us that didn't buy into this, have always remained cautious or even tried to time the top. 

Well, now is as good of a time as ever to start bearposting. First of all, if we look at the Fear & Greed index it looks absolutely cooked.

Usually this might be a buy indicator, but again, the party should be actually over at some point. And you don't want to be stuck buying the dip that keeps dipping. 

The issue, also, is that people in general (outside our pretty CT bubble) are not that confident in crypto and would rather buy other assets. Let’s take a look at some other charts.

This is nasdaq:

It is volatile, yes, but arguably much cleaner than crypto. Most importantly it goes only up (mostly) and only gets shaken out (for a week or two only) around post-election tariffs announcements. Not at all the case for BTC.

And gold has honestly been the most “up only” example I can think of this year in a chart much more clean than BTC.

So, for comparison, this is BTC for the past year.

It's actually really ugly, volatile, and distasteful, to be honest. 

Thankfully it is still in an uptrend on higher time frames, but like I said in the beginning, some of us believe that will end at some point.

Now is as good of a time to be bearish as ever. 

On the lower time frames it is already very bearish with the previous low being taken out in last week’s “largest liquidation in crypto history” with more than 19 billion wiped out of the markets in a single day. If you want to know more about that we went in detail on our Market Monday show (link).

Would you buy this chart?

Can't really be that bullish since, you know, the price action flow in the order books is in fact, objectively, bearish these days.

I guess the real issue is that everyone seems to be either leverage trading or is balls deep into some real degenerate altcoins these days, and those get absolutely obliterated for 15-40% everytime BTC as much as sneezed a little. Imagine what would happen to your precious coins if BTC goes below 100k or even 90k. Something that doesn't seem as unrealistic as it did just a few weeks ago. Oh how fast things change in our industry. 

So what we then get is record breaking liquidations and crying on the timeline and the alts outside top 10 look like this:

Ugly. Let me not even show you memecoins or NFTs. If you are into those still, like me, employment looks good here, not buying the dip. 

Instead, let's continue with my pretty drawings for just a while longer.

The other day in Purgatory we had some with “life of a cycle” charts. Someone suggested that we are in the “bear trap” stage. Dude. We are way past that. There have been many bear traps on the way up that lasted literally YEARS. 

I was only half joking and if you observe the actual chart, it lines up almost perfectly.

So is it actually over? I'd say there is a non-negligable chance, yes. Markets look exhausted and people are losing their minds and solvency. Maybe a relief rally back up before we go to zero. But even if it's not completely over, I’0d say that the probability of us dropping to 70k is higher than this party continuing and us going to 200k BTC.

Given how badly alts have performed in the past few weeks, if we do in fact drop below 100k, does it even matter if it's actually over or not? Everyone’s sanity and portfolio will get obliterated anyway. 

I’d say it was funny while it lasted. 

No matter what, Neo Tokyo News will be here even if we go into another bear.

Thank you for your attention in this matter.

See you next week. 🫡🧡

The Citadel just lit the fuse on ByteStreet's first raise, and Project O stepped up as the inaugural play—a mobile-first strategic card battler redefining cross-platform TCGs with one-of-a-kind collectibles. The teams from Neo Tokyo, ByteStreet, and Project O went live on Twitch for an in-depth AMA, diving into the deck, full opportunity details, pricing, and all the alpha. If you missed the fireworks, replay it on the NT Twitch channel. The raise opened mid-week on October 15th, giving Citizens and $BYTES holders a front-row seat to plug into the ecosystem without breaking the bank.

Speaking of accessibility, Neo Tokyo's ByteStreet launch proved to be a prime entry point for non-Citizens eyeing the action. Citizen NFTs stayed out of reach for the average web3 degen, but the investment vertical opened wide. Instead of slapping on a lazy upfront staking model like other launchpads do, the squad crafted a slick allocation system with low friction and minimal upfront costs—pick and choose your bets with cheap tickets.

Yeah, the market nuked hard, leaving portfolios stretched and vibes uncertain, but those blood-on-the-streets buys often turn into monster wins. The ByteStreet crew delivered hours of content with Project O, so DYOR in the archives.

Don't ape blindly—build your thesis and place those bets. Despite the crypto chaos, investment opps and revenue machines will heat up again, positioning ByteStreet to snag prime deals for years. Quality over quantity, powered by the Yurei team on ops, Rengo's dealflow network, and that unbreakable Neo Tokyo brand and community trifecta.

AI leveled up the Citadel's toolkit with the launch of "Learn AI Live: Don't Get Left Behind," a killer weekly education series on NT Twitch. Week 1 featured the founder of Remix breaking down AI game development, tooling, and models for mini-game creation. Future sessions hit vibe coding apps, image gen, LLMs, APIs and wrappers, video creation, and more. If you slept on the exponential productivity boost, you got left in the dust—tune in and level up.

It was MVC season again, gearing up to crown the Most Valuable Citizens who showed max initiative, drive, and grit to amp the community and network. Past winners like @DamonNeedsToCreate, @Chr0nicle, @DadFuture, @felixnorden, @Crasher, @LeBoomington, @Nick/Cryptoetheus, @fauve, and @skartexx.eth set the bar—no repeats, treat it like a lifetime flex. Nominations are pouring in via the form available in the Citadel, with winners announced at the next Town Hall. I would never try to sway your vote, but if you don’t vote for @PhoenixxDown and @Flower, do you even NT?

NT Plays could earn some well-deserved shine, by getting nominated for Creator of the Year at Gam3s.gg's crypto gaming awards. As a collective crushing content and events, the squad has the potential to lead the pack—even if not a solo act. Stack your votes here, and prove the Citadel's gaming dominance.

The week stacked gaming heat: Thai Viking went live four days straight on NT Twitch, dominating Off The Grid with its new updates, spooky Halloween vibes, dashing mechanics, loadout tips, and that infamous Flensor scoop. Then, on Saturday, October 18th, the crew jumped into My Pet Hooligan's October event. StreetKred Trials kicked off with a revamped reward system inspired by the community—raffles unlocked via tier progression, exclusive drip, and strats to climb the ranks. The month's StreetKred unlocked something massive, per AMGI studio whispers—don't miss that drop. The MPH/OTG event fired off live, with open chat buzzing on both games, OTG updates rolling, and casual vibes all around.

This Week’s Neo Tokyo Content

Short Scoops

Until next week, citizens.

All content from Neo Tokyo News is for entertainment purposes only, is not financial advice, and does not reflect the opinions of Neo Tokyo.

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